從零到一

復活節假期間完成了一本書：「Zero to One」，中文本譯為「從零到一」，作者是PayPal 的創辦人Peter Thiel, 內容主要是講初創公司（startup company)，由Thiel在Harvard大學的學生把講義內容結集成書，對有意設立初創公司的人，很有啟發性和鼓舞性。雖然筆者不是要設初創公 司，不過作者寫得很好，其他內容對做人處事、世界觀都有啟發性，是一本好書，筆者趁數日假期便一氣呵成讀完它吧！

Thiel 所指的從零到一，意思是指創造，由無到有，得到的利潤也會是由零到一，即是100%利潤，而相近產品只會帶來競爭，而競爭會分薄利潤，所得的只是由一至n的利潤。當然，作為PayPal 的創辦人，他的確有條件這樣說，因為Paypal就是從零到一，其他例子還有facebook, Google。他認為只要這個世界還有秘密，便有可能做到從零到一，換句話說，他鼓勵人們創新，發掘從無到有，從零到一。

筆者認為書的前半部份寫得比較有趣，不過全書可讀性仍然很高。

作者Thiel有幾個觀點筆者想在此分享:

1) 視乎你如何對待未來，如果你認為未來是可以確定的，你會首先嘗試了解它，並積極地做一些事情去令自己邁向這確定的未來，如果你認為未來是非確定性的，是一種機會率而已，那你可能甚麼也不做，不會自主地改變它

“You can expect the future to take a definite form or you can treat it as hazily uncertain. If you treat the future as something definite, it makes sense to understand it in advance and to work to shape it. But if you expect an indefinite future ruled by randomness, you’ll give up on trying to master it.”

2) Thiel 把人們分為樂觀主義和悲觀主義，這兩類人對確定性和非確定性的未來採取的行動，樂觀的人會朝著確定的未來採取確切的行動，而悲觀的人對確定的未來會積極地做一些事情，例如去積谷防飢。但樂觀的人如果視未來為不確定的，便會甚麼也不做，以為所有事情都是理所當然的，而悲觀的人對應不確定的未來，只會望天打卦。

“The indefinite pessimist can’t know whether the inevitable decline will be fast or slow, castastrophic or gradual. All he can do is wait for it to happen…..”
“A definite pessimist believes the future can be know, but since it will be bleak, he must prepare for it.”
“To a definite optimist, the future will be better than the present if he pans and works to make it better.”
“To a indefinite optimist, the future will be better, but he doesn’t know how exactly, so he won’t make any specific plan. “

3) 現今的政府大都走向不確定性的政治，過去他們研究原子彈武器，探索月球，現在只懂提供各種社會保障、醫療，福利支出多過可自由支配的開支，如果政府開支是以自由支配的開支主導，則顯示政府更有能力計劃未來，然而福利支出的邏輯，只是派支票令未來好過一點。

“The very character of government has become indefinite, too. The government used to be able to coordinate complex solutions to problems like atomic weaponry and lunar exploration But today after 40 years of indefinite creep, the government mainly just provides insurance, our solutions to big problems are Medicare, Social Security, and a dizzying array of other transfer payment programs. Its no surprise that entitlement spending has eclipsed discretionary spending every year since 1975. To increase discretionary spending we’d need definite plans to solve specific problems. But according to the indefinite logic of entitlement spending, we can make things better just by sending out more checks.”

4) 當你選擇職業，必須有個信念相信這份職業在幾十年後仍然有價值

“When you choose a career, you act on your belief that the kind of work you do will be valuable decades from now”

5) 一個人不能維持十幾種職業的可能性而不作選擇，換句話說，人必須尋找並聚焦他精於的工作

“Less obvious but just as important, an individual cannot diversify his own life by keeping dozens of equally possible careers in ready reserve”