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2012年6月2日星期六

隔岸觀火燒西班牙

近日西班牙國內第四大銀行Bankia瀕臨破產,財政拮据的西班牙政府,宣佈將之國有化,並投入 190 億歐元的紓困金,令正在深化的歐債危機,暫時止血。然而Bankia作為西班牙最大的抵押貸款銀行,其面臨破產,令人驚覺西班牙房產泡沬爆破的後遺症並未完全浮現,什可能陸續有來,而現時西班牙政府的債務已高達8000億歐元,其救起整個銀行體系的能力大受質疑,繼希臘之後,西班牙將是歐債危機的第二大風眼!

西班牙今時今日的發展實在令人感到唏噓!曾幾何時,西班牙出口的皮革產品在世界市場佔一重要席位,經濟增長有著工業實體支持,為何會弄之今天債台高築,銀行體系搖搖欲墜的地步?筆者認為很藉得我們借鑑!

筆者對西班牙的過去並不太熟識,在維基百科找到以下有關西班牙銀行體系:

The Spanish banking system had been credited as one of the most solid and best equipped among all Western economies to cope with the worldwide liquidity crisis, thanks to the country's conservative banking rules and practices. Banks are required to have high capital provisions and demand various proofs and securities from intending borrowers. Nevertheless this practices were strongly relaxed during the housing bubble, a trend to which the regulator (Banco de España) turned a blind eye.
It was later revealed that nearly all the Spanish representatives in their Congress had strong investments in the housing sector, some having up to twenty houses. Over the time, more and more news have emerged about the informal alliance between Spanish central and regional governments, the banking sector (bear in mind for example the recent government pardon of the second at command at the Santander Bank, while all the major parties are strongly indebted with banks, and such debts are extended from time to time) which increased the bubble size over the years. Most regional semipublic savings banks (cajas ) lended heavily to real state companies which at the end of the bubble went bankrupt, then, the cajas found themselves left with the collateral and properties of those companies, namely overpriced real state and residential-zoned land, now worthless, rendering the cajas in essence bankrupted.

大意是指西班牙銀行被視為是西方經濟體中借貸最謹慎,資本充足要求什高,最能應對世界流動性危機,然而對房貸極為手鬆,直至後期才發現,差不多所有在國會的代表均涉足很多房產投資,有些什至投資多達二十間房屋,政府、銀行、房產千絲萬縷的關係,導致房產泡沬越吹越大…..

西班牙房產泡沬自1985開始,至2008年爆破,期間樓價上升了201%,長達22年的房地產興旺期,令西班牙人以為樓市長升長有,西班牙80%的人口置了業。房產泡沬爆破前,西班牙的經濟強勁,失業率曾經在2007年跌至歷史低位的7.9%,經濟按年增長率達4%。 2008年金融海嘯令出口收縮,加上油價上升令通脹高企,22年的房產泡沬就此終結。截止2012年第一季,失業率上升至24.4%,經濟按年下跌0.4%,真所謂「屋漏偏逢連夜雨」,經濟差還要以高息還債,政府10年債息由2005年3、4厘升至現在接近7厘!

現在看似是隔岸觀火,筆者想指出的是,房產泡沬掩蓋了很多經濟問題,一但經濟體系遇上波濤駭浪,所有的經濟問題便會浮現!而低息亦只是暫時現象,就如西班牙政府,債息低、經濟好,政府財政狀況當然沒問題,但經濟不景氣,還錢能力受質疑,低息變成高息,還錢能力便更差!

很多人說現時香港人的按揭負擔比率只有四成六,遠低於97年時的九成,所以現時樓市沒有泡沫。但低息只是暫時現象,當利息上升遇上收入降,按揭負擔比率除時上升,所以話沒有泡沫,只是低息的假象,而「屋漏偏逢連夜雨」亦並非不常見的現象。

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